Are Model-Year Closeouts a Good Buy?

Price
Without a doubt, outgoing models are going to be less expensive. Discounts on most 2007 models should reach a peak in the summer and early fall, based on historical data from Edmunds.com and Bandon, Ore.-based CNW Marketing Research. Once new models arrive, dealers will want to quickly sell any remaining '07 inventory so that they can charge full price on new '08 models. It’s much harder to get buyers to pony up full price on the latest vehicles with the outgoing ones sitting on the lot, especially if they look just like the new ones. The more old models dealers can move out, the better their chances to make more money selling the new ones.

“A year ago, [Toyota] had a new Camry and a new FJ Cruiser. Margins hit a real sweet spot,” said Earl Hesterberg, president and CEO of Houston-based Group 1 Automotive Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. dealer chain. That is, the 2007 Camry was newly redesigned, and the FJ Cruiser was a completely new model, with no previous model to stagnate on the lot. From the dealer’s point of view, this “sweet spot” meant charging their customers top dollar, and getting it.

Styling
If an “old” model was redesigned recently, like the Camry in 2007, it’s unlikely that the new model will look all that different. It may have been tweaked in some ways, but, for the most part, opting for the old model doesn’t mean sacrificing much, styling-wise. In the end, you can save a bundle on a car you like to look at.

In fact, although redesigned models are often touted for their groundbreaking designs, sometimes people actually prefer the styling of an existing model, simply because they’re used to it. At first glance, a reworked model can seem over-designed, and even radical compared to the vehicle it’s replacing. And not necessarily radical in a good way. For instance, BMW has toned down the supposedly controversial styling of its 7 Series, which was redesigned in 2002, a possible sign that customers were turned off by the new look.

Availability
Because new or redesigned models are often more sought-after, they can be hard to come by, meaning customers may have to get in line to buy one. With outgoing models, this isn’t a concern. In fact, outgoing models are often a little too available, which is another reason dealers want to move them. Here’s how it works: Dealers borrow money to pay for the cars that sit on their lots. For every day that the cars sit unsold, they accrue more of what the industry calls “floor plan” interest charges. According to the National Automobile Dealers Association, rising interest rates meant that dealers paid an average of about $160 in floor-plan costs for every vehicle they sold in 2006, roughly double the year before. Thus, dealerships want fewer cars on their lots because it means they are spending less money.

Toyota is calling its summer promotion “Lots on the Lots,” a name that suggests Toyota dealers have too much inventory. This is good for potential car buyers, but not so good for Toyota. In fact, it’s symptomatic of larger problems. “Import inventories are higher than we would like, mostly because of softer sales for Honda and Toyota,” said David Cosper, CFO for Sonic Automotive Inc., Charlotte, N.C., the nation’s third-biggest dealership chain. Toyota Division reported that its sales dropped 3.5 percent in July, compared to the same month one year ago. Honda Division said it slipped 1.2 percent in July.