There's an easy way to understand what's happening to American carmakers.
To clarify, by "American" we mean two companies:
But those companies are not American-owned (though if you were wise you've owned stock in at least a few of them throughout the years). They are the vanquishers, not the seemingly soon-to-be vanquished in our tale of Ford's and GM's woe.
GM and Ford are the perennial losers in a fight for market share, and if you want to know why just drive a 2005 Honda Ridgeline. No, this isn't a Ford F-150 or a Chevy Silverado; you won't buy it to haul a ton of gravel or tow a 9,500-pound boat. It can't do any of that, in fact. But it does have a passenger volume that's larger than that of almost any sedan sold in this country (save for a slim few full-sized models) and has more rear-seat legroom than even a SuperCab F-150.
Huh? Wait, if the Ridgeline can't outhaul other full-size trucks (but can haul plenty in its 60-inch-by-49.5-inch bed), and yet it's bigger inside than most sedans (and many full-size trucks, too), what's the Ridgeline's game, and why will it hurt Ford and GM?
Simple: It's not just about the Ridgeline. It's about yet another clever offering coming along to gnaw at Detroit's bread and butter. Here's your recent-years scorecard: Honda brings along the Element in 2003 and this very clever sport utility vehicle (SUV) that sells for around $20,000 to $25,000 has many buyers using it like a truck, thanks to its nearly all-plastic interior. Bang, Ford and GM lose 50,000 small SUV/pickup sales annually. GM looks around and has to throw yet more cash on the hoods of its small-SUV offerings to get them out the showroom door.
Then, last year Nissan debuted its new Titan, and this splendid full-size pickup, with more torque and horsepower than the competition, superb towing and hauling capacity and, oh yeah, a sticker-price lower than the domestics, is on target to sell more than 80,000 units in 2005. Wham, sales of Ford's small, ancient Ranger — which doesn't cost much less than the Titan — start to sink. Then, Toyota redesigns both its Tacoma and Tundra trucks and, combined, these two rigs are pegged to sell in excess of 270,000 units in 2005, while F-Series pickup sales are down about 10,000 units through the first quarter of this year.
We're not suggesting that Ford and GM are going away. Rather, that they're increasingly going to have to figure out what foreign brands already know; cleverness and faster new-model cycles win, while big-volume cars and trucks are a bust. Even Honda is finding this out; sales of the Accord were down last year, just two years after a redesign.
But Honda doesn't wait around for buyers or try to woo them with cash. With immensely innovative vehicles like the Ridgeline, Honda, like Toyota and Nissan, is going where they've never gone before — deep into the heartland of conservative American tastes, chasing pickup buyers and doing quite a good job. In the process, by keeping volumes and expectations low and demand fairly high, all three Japanese companies can manage their incentive costs, charging full sticker, while the likes of GM and Ford have to offer, on average, about $3,500 in allowances and cash back to sell their bigger-volume model cars and trucks.
Still, we haven't bothered to tell you what the Ridgeline's winning personality has to offer customers, and why we think the 50,000-to-60,000-unit mark will easily be reached without incentives. Keep clicking to find out why.
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